 March 12, 2008 (Computerworld) Heading a start-up after leaving his position as head of Microsoft Game Studios, Ed Fries thought that he might be able to sell 10,000 units of his product -- personalized online game figurines -- the first year.
(Fig: Full-color World of Warcraft game figurine created by FigurePrints.com with a 3-D printer.)
After two months, about 100,000 people had signed up, and Fries had to institute a lottery to determine which customers would actually be served.
Fries and his his start-up, FigurePrints LLC in Kirkland, Wash., are using a process called 3-D printing that uses printer-like machines to build small models, parts and prototypes. The technology has been around for a while but is moving closer to the small shop and perhaps even the consumer space, some observers say.
FigurePrints.com makes one-eighteenth-scale figurines of action characters developed (through lengthy game play, during which they acquire armor and attributes) by players of the World of Warcraft multiplayer online game.
The buyer chooses a pose and a pedestal, and the figurine (averaging 4 in. high) is shipped with a bell-jar dust cover for $99.95, plus $14.95 for shipping and handling. With four machines built by Z Corp. running around the clock, Fries can make 48 figurines per day. The initial 100,000 prospects, meanwhile, amount to about 1% of the 10 million World of Warcraft subscribers.
How does it work?
3-D printing is the low end of a market variously called rapid prototyping (RP) or additive manufacturing. 3-D computer-aided design (CAD) files are converted into thin slices that are then built one upon the next using various processes, including heated powders, extruded plastic filaments and resins precisely cured with lasers, explained Terry Wohlers, head of Wohlers Associates Inc., an RP consulting firm in Fort Collins, Colo.
It's almost the reverse of taking a small model and slicing it into a multitude of layers. A 3-D printer is able to "print" the first layer of the model using, for example, a plastic-like substance. It then "prints" the next layer on top of that one, and so on. In the process, all the slices are bonded together, and you end up with a solid, 3-D representation of the model described by the CAD file.
Fries' experience might be a foreshadowing of a technological development that could sweep away economic pillars such as manufacturing and distribution.
The idea goes like this: Today, information is readily available online and can be faithfully reproduced locally with laser or ink-jet printers. But tomorrow, many more descriptions of 3-D objects may be available online, and consumers will be able to faithfully reproduce them using 3-D printing, circumventing most stages of commerce.
A 3-D printer from Z Corp. for the commercial market.
Most of the resulting models are basically plastic prototypes suitable for form, fit and function testing, or for casting molds. But some high-end processes produce metal parts suitable for immediate use, Wohlers said. Prices for commercially available 3-D printers currently start at about $20,000. At the high end, you need several hundred-thousand dollars to get started, he said.
What about accuracy?
As for the accuracy of the printed models, RP tolerances aren't as good as what's available with plastic injection molding, explained RP consultant Todd Grimm, president of T. A. Grimm & Associates Inc. in Edgewood, Ky. But they can be better than investment casting, which is used to make items such as golf clubs and other metal items that will be subjected to further finishing, he added.
Tolerances for high-end RP machine are usually 0.1% or 0.2%, said John Kawola, vice president at Z Corp. in Burlington, Mass.
With low-end 3-D printers, tolerances are rarely less than 0.5%. "But with, say, an engine block, you don't care about the tolerances except for the holes, and you machine-finish those anyway," Kawola said. "3-D printing probably satisfies 70% to 90% of what people want to do with a prototype." Consequently, sales of 3-D printers have been growing by 30% to 40% yearly for several years and now amount to 80% of the whole RP market, Kawola said.
"It speeds up the design process by at least a factor of four," estimated 3-D printing user William Effrece, lab manager at The Stanley Works tool factory in New Britain, Conn. "Previously, making a prototype was something done only at the end of the design process, it cost $3,000, and you had to wait two or three weeks. Now it can be done in a day, and the only expense is the cost of the materials. Our machine paid for itself in three months." He uses a 3-D printer from Z Corp., whose powder-deposition model-building technology allows for photorealistic models.
Make your own toys
But wouldn't customers of companies such as FigurePrints be happier if they were able to print their figurines at home -- as well as appliance replacement parts, toys, ornaments, kitchenware, etc?
One company hoping to meet this potential demand is Desktop Factory Inc. in Pasadena, Calif. It's taking advance orders for a $4,995 system to be delivered sometime later this year.
"I see the low-cost availability of 3-D printing as having major implications," said Cathy Lewis, CEO of Desktop Factory. She anticipates the system being popular with schools and hopes it will promote the education of a new generation of U.S. engineers.
"But the long-term vision is rapid manufacturing in the home," Lewis said. "You have the ability to create one-off products and customized toys. Instead of importing items by millions from China, transporting them to warehouses and then stores, where we drive to pick them up, you will download a legal file, for a legal fee, and print your own repair part. Our parts are durable enough to serve as end-user items."
She anticipates that the "cost of goods" to create a Desktop Factory unit will fall to $500 by late 2011. "So in 2012, I should be able to sell it for $1,000," she said. But she also wants to see more low-end software tools become available. She and others pointed to Google Inc.'s SketchUp 3-D design package, available as a free download, as an example of what would be needed. Lewis said that the Desktop Factory unit may eventually have an interface for SketchUp files. (Professional 3-D CAD tools can cost thousands of dollars.)
A 3-D printer costing less than $5,000 is under development at Desktop Factory, shown here with output samples.
As for the Desktop Factory system, which involves plastic and metal powder heated with a halogen light, "in terms of accuracy, they have some work to do," said Michael Berman, chief technology officer at the Art Center College of Design in Pasadena.
Berman tested a Desktop Factory beta unit for three months. "If you were doing a doll, an expensive 3-D printer would produce something like a manufactured doll you'd get in a store, whereas from this unit, the eyebrows would not be sharp, and a mouth would lack a sharp edge -- like a photo a little out of focus. But obviously it's a much lower price point, and we are enthusiastic about it."
Shaky premise
The whole premise of a consumer RP market seems shaky to Grimm. "I don't think that soon everyone will be printing your own widgets," he said. "The technology is not there in terms of ease of use or material strength. The consumers will not put up with subpar quality. Anyway, how many people bake cookies from scratch? Yet, instead of buying a part, we expect people to sit down and make one?"
"From a hardware standpoint, I think prices could fall to the point where 3-D printers could become home appliances," countered Jon Cobb, vice president for 3-D printers at Stratasys Inc., a 3-D printer maker in Eden Prairie, Minn. "The real impediment would be the software -- how are you going to get the information to create a model? A hobbyist could get information off the Internet, but if you are talking about making replacement parts, it would be incumbent on the manufacturers to supply the information someplace, and no one has done that yet."
A firm that touts itself as the leading online supplier of stock 3-D data models is Turbo Squid Inc. in New Orleans. Michele Bousquet, the company's marketing director, said that there has been little demand for 3-D printer files. Most of its stock files are used for on-screen rendering and animation projects, or by architects who need virtual furniture and other accessories to spruce up virtual buildings prior to virtual walk-throughs by real customers, she explained.
Bousquet also noted that 3-D printing involves details that are usually not considered for screen models, such as making sure no polygons overlap and that all surfaces are connected. These considerations make most of the models offered on her site unsuitable for 3-D printing, she noted.
At FigurePrints.com, Fries said that every figurine file has to be inspected before it's printed, to look for capes with the proper thinness, for example, or flaming swords that require artistic interpretation. "We learn new things every day," he noted.
Fries said there might be a market for home 3-D printing. "When you have children, an amazing amount of plastic crap comes into the house every day, and you might as well download it from the Internet," he noted.
For right now, though, "we're looking for ways to scale up production," he said.
A 3-D printer from Stratasys for the commercial market.
Lamont Wood is a freelance writer in San Antonio.
|
